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The USGA has settled the ultimate US Open debate.

Every year fans take turns throwing all kinds of numbers up in the air, guessing what score they’d shoot at the third major of the year.

If the players’ sides are to be taken, then almost everybody would be wrong, especially your 10-handicap friend who thinks they could break 90.

It was only Monday that Wyndham Clark declared the greens at Pinehurst No.2 “borderline”.

Viktor Hovland added that it’ll be “interesting” to see what happens when the greens get firmer before Xander Schauffele admitted making five ‘sometimes won’t hurt’.

So, consider playing from the same tees, same condition; how would you fare?

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Well, thankfully, the governing body has released a tool called ‘What would you shoot?’ to predict just that.

It uses your Handicap Index and course setup data to tell you what your “target score” would be.

Simply enter your Handicap Index or your estimated average score range – if you don’t have an Index – then select the US Open to find out your target score in North Carolina this week.

Based on your index and the exact championship course setup, the tool calculates your course handicap, which is added to par to create the number.

Now, don’t plan a golf trip to Pinehurst and expect to card that score, or you might be slightly disappointed.

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According to the USGA, the tool determines a “goal score” that golfers can expect to shoot around 20 percent of the time.

After crunching some numbers, we can reveal that even a scratch golfer would have a target score of 78, whilst you would need a handicap index of 16 or better to break 100.

We’ll let you check out the tool here to have a shot yourself but read on to find out how well (or badly?) other handicaps stack up.

What would you shoot at the 2024 US Open?

Handicap Index – Course Handicap – Target Score

24 Handicap Index: 109 (39 course handicap)

23 Handicap Index: 108 (38 course handicap)

22 Handicap Index: 107 (37 course handicap)

21 Handicap Index: 105 (35 course handicap)

20 Handicap Index: 104 (34 course handicap)

19 Handicap Index: 103 (33 course handicap)

18 Handicap Index: 101 (31 course handicap)

17 Handicap Index: 100 (30 course handicap)

16 Handicap Index: 99 (29 course handicap)

15 Handicap Index: 97 (27 course handicap)

14 Handicap Index: 96 (26 course handicap)

13 Handicap Index: 95 (25 course handicap)

12 Handicap Index: 94 (24 course handicap)

11 Handicap Index: 92 (22 course handicap)

10 Handicap Index: 91 (21 course handicap)

9 Handicap Index: 90 (20 course handicap)

8 Handicap Index: 88 (18 course handicap)

7 Handicap Index: 87 (17 course handicap)

6 Handicap Index: 86 (16 course handicap)

5 Handicap Index: 84 (14 course handicap)

4 Handicap Index: 83 (13 course handicap)

3 Handicap Index: 82 (12 course handicap)

2 Handicap Index: 80 (10 course handicap)

1 Handicap Index: 79 (9 course handicap)

0 Handicap Index: 78 (8 course handicap)


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John Turnbull A graduate of the University of Stirling, John joined the bunkered team in 2023 as a Content Producer, with a responsibility for covering all breaking news, tour news, grassroots content and much more besides. A keen golfer, he plays the majority of his golf at Falkirk Golf Club. Top of his 'bucket list' is a round of Pebble Beach... ideally in the company of Gareth Bale.

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