Why NOT to bet on Dustin Johnson winning the US Open

Dustin Johnson Us Open Story

He’s just won his 18th PGA Tour title in dominant fashion to tie Tiger Woods for the most victories on the circuit in the last decade and, in doing so, has returned to world No.1.

He’s also a former winner of the event, has the length required to make short work of the 7,445-yard host venue, Shinnecock Hills, and is the current bookies’ favourite for the title.

So, it might seem crazy – perhaps even downright stupid – to suggest that Dustin Johnson is absolutely NOT the man to put your money on at this week’s US Open.

WATCH - DJ holes from fairway to win in Memphis
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However, there’s a perfectly good, justifiable reason for that.

Of all the things DJ has going in his favour, he has one significant thing working against him: history.

Dustin Johnson Us Open Story 2

According to Golf Channel stats guru Justin Ray (@JustinRayGC), nobody has ever won the US Open the week after winning on the PGA Tour.

Arnold Palmer came closest when he finished runner-up in 1963 at Brookline.  

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Not only that, since the Official World Golf Ranking was introduced in 1986, the incumbent world No.1 has won the US Open on only three occasions: Tiger Woods in 2000; Tiger Woods in 2002; and Tiger Woods in 2008.

Doesn’t make for great reading if you’re a DJ fan, does it?

Jason Day Us Open Story

Looking for somebody to back? Jason Day, above, might be your man.

The Aussie – who has already won twice this season (the Farmers Insurance Openand Wells Fargo Championship) – has the best US Open scoring average (71.2) of players who have a minimum of 20 rounds in the year’s second major over the last decade.

If you want to base it purely on the world rankings, meanwhile, the average ranking of the US Open champion over the last decade is 21.4.

The current world No.21 is 2012 US Open champion Webb Simpson, with Memorial Tournament winner Bryson DeChambeau 22nd.

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