Should you ever lay-up to a ‘perfect’ yardage? Real life data has the answer

Picture the scene. You’re a long way out in the fairway on a par-5, and you’re met with a conundrum.

If you hit your Sunday best with a 3-wood, you might just be able to sneak your ball onto the front edge of the green and be left with an eagle putt.

But, you’re also aware that beside the green there are trees, deep bunkers and perhaps even out of bounds lurking. You decide it’s not worth the risk, so you’re laying up.

In this same hypothetical situation, which we’ve all found ourselves in, let’s say the flag is 210 yards away. You want to lay-up to give yourself the best chance of still making a birdie on this par-5.

Should you try and get as close as possible, or lay-up to a ‘perfect’ yardage?

The answer might seem obvious, but if you watch golf coverage on TV, you might hear some commentators say that a player is laying up to their favourite yardage. In most cases, that yardage is going to be around 100 yards, to leave them a full shot with a wedge into the green.

It’s a theory that might resonate with amateur golfers too, especially ones who might get a little scared of partial shots with a wedge.

You can stand on the range and hit ten balls from 80 yards and feel pretty comfortable over all of them. But, take your ball to 45 yards away and you might feel your knees getting a little weak and your palms getting a little sweaty.

It’s something that almost every club golfer has heard at some point in their time on the course too. A shot in the 45 yard region strikes fear into some players, so they actively leave themselves further away to avoid it.

Take this logic back to our hypothetical scenario, where the ball is 210 yards away from the flag. If you’re comfortable hitting a full wedge, surely it would make sense to try and hit your ball 130 yards, to leave 80 yards, rather than hit your ball 165 yards, or more, to leave less than 45 yards, especially if it takes the possibility of a duff/skull out of the equation?

The perfect lay-up yardage – the data

In actual fact, there’s a lot of data that disproves this theory pretty quickly and we can see that thanks to the Shot Scope database. With data tracked from amateur golfers of all levels, we see that in no group is there a golfer that would benefit from keeping their ball further away from the hole on a lay-up shot.

Let’s take the stats for a ten handicapper for this argument. From 100 yards, this player is going to have an average proximity to the hole of 49 feet. From between 50 and 75 yards out, they’re going to have an average proximity of 37 feet.

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That translates into less shots, too. From between 50 and 75 yards, they’re going to take, on average, 3.24 shots to finish. From 100 yards, that becomes an average of 3.43 shots. It’s not a huge difference, but over the course of a summer on the golf course, that certainly adds up.

The same story translates further up and further down the handicap index pyramid. For 25 handicap golfers, the gap is actually larger between the 50-75 yard shot and the 100 yard shot.

From the shorter range, the number of shots it takes to finish is 3.65. From 100 yards, that becomes 4.11 shots.

For a scratch golfer, Shot Scope tells us the numbers are 2.87 and 3.05.

I’m aware that some of you might not be convinced, and I understand that. Perhaps you’re someone who is partial to thinning a shot from 40 yards through the back of the green, or duffing it no more than halfway to the hole.

Well, I guarantee that you could do the same with an 80 or 100 yard shot. In fact, some of your well struck shots from this distance are going to miss the green altogether and find the trouble you laid back to avoid.

There’s another way of looking at this, too. If you’re 210 yards out and you want to hit the ball exactly 130 yards, how often are you actually going to exactly hit that number? For most golfers, you’re going to miss that the majority of the time, and leave yourself even further away in a more awkward spot.

The caveats!

Case closed, right? You should always try and get your ball as close to the hole as possible. Well, there are, as always, some caveats.

If you’re on a hole where hitting it this close needlessly brings a potential penalty shot into play, then you obviously shouldn’t aim to get that close, as it defeats the point of laying up. Similarly, if getting as close as possible means hitting a club you’re not comfortable with, then it doesn’t make sense to do so.

Instead, the data supports getting the ball as close to the hole, without bringing in needless trouble. This is hard to quantify, as it is very much dependent on the specific hole, but don’t try and take on hazards that you’re likely to find yourself in.

Also, I’m certain there are players, a very very small minority, who might hit the ball closer from 100 yards than 50 yards, on average. I would be confident in saying that almost all of these players have some form of the yips, or serious issues from 50 yards. If that’s you, then try and fix that part of your game, rather than relying on your approach play. (Granted, that’s easier said than done.)

The perfect lay-up yardage – conclusion

The data really is clear on this one.

If you’re consistently laying up further away from the hole than you can safely afford to, then you’re leaving shots on the table. Even if you might feel more comfortable hitting from what you think is a ‘perfect’ yardage, you’re unlikely to be getting the ball closer from there. The morale of the story: get as close as you can, as often as you can.

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Lewis Fraser As bunkered’s Performance Editor, Lewis oversees the content that’s designed to make you a better player. From the latest gear to tuition, nutrition, strategy and more, he’s the man. A graduate of the University of Stirling, Lewis joined bunkered in 2021. Formerly a caddie at Castle Stuart Golf Links, he is a member of Bathgate Golf Club where he plays off four.

Performance Editor