The Masters: Is this simple stat the key to an Augusta win?

Trying to pick a winning golfer for the Masters is no easy task. However, one key stat could point us in the direction of those likely to fare well at Augusta National.

When faced with a field made up of the best players in the world, it’s difficult to know where to start. Do we look at past results, driving distance, putting performance? The list is endless.

Of course, what makes The Masters unique in the world of major golf is that it’s played over the same, exacting, venue every year. And in the past ten years, Augusta National has shown us that one key statistic often points to a winner.

That stat is greens in regulation.

Now, in a world where strokes gained stats are often the preferred method, greens in regulation might seem primitive, but when considered at Augusta National, it stands to reason.

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Even players with the very best short games are going to struggle to scramble often around the brutal greens of Augusta National.

Think about missing the green long at the third, to the right of the 10th or, worse, short of the par-3 12th. None of these offer a straightforward up and down.

The stats from the last decade back up this way of thinking. Out of the last ten champions at Augusta National, nine of them finished in the top ten in greens in regulation.

Here’s a list of each of the last ten winners, where they ranked in greens in regulation that week, and what percentage of greens they found.

• Scottie Scheffler – T7 – 64%
• Jon Rahm – T3 – 72%
• Scottie Scheffler – T5 – 68%
• Hideki Matsuyama – T7 – 69%
• Dustin Johnson – First – 83%
• Tiger Woods – First – 81%
• Patrick Reed – T21 – 67%
• Sergio Garcia – T2 – 75%
• Danny Willett – T6 – 67%
• Jordan Spieth – T2 – 75%

As with most statistics, there is an anomaly and that comes in the form of 2018 champion Patrick Reed. Reed, renowned for his short game, had a freakishly good week on the greens, averaging 26 putts per round. That’s unlikely to happen too often on Augusta National’s exceptionally hard putting surfaces.

All this begs the question, who is in line to do well at the 2025 Masters? If we follow the logic that players who hit the most greens in regulation will do well, some key contenders emerge.

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On the PGA Tour, 15 of the top 20 players in greens in regulation are in the field for this week’s event. Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, Robert MacIntyre, Patrick Cantlay, JJ Spaun and Collin Morikawa are all nicely placed in the top ten for GIRs on tour this year.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler has hit 71% of his greens this year, leaving him just outside the top ten. Rory McIlroy, meanwhile, is 53rd in this stat, hitting 68% of greens.

Of course, it would be wrong to discount LIV Golf players from this statistic.

Masters hopefuls Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Tyrrell Hatton all rank in the top five of the tour’s GIR stats for this season, averaging at the 73% mark. Joaquin Niemann and Bryson DeChambeau, two players who will fancy their chances to contend on Sunday, aren’t far behind, both hitting over 70% of greens this year on the circuit.

While another Patrick Reed-esque performance could buck the trend, expect this year’s Masters champion to hit plenty greens at Augusta National.

Lewis Fraser As bunkered’s Performance Editor, Lewis oversees the content that’s designed to make you a better player. From the latest gear to tuition, nutrition, strategy and more, he’s the man. A graduate of the University of Stirling, Lewis joined bunkered in 2021. Formerly a caddie at Castle Stuart Golf Links, he is a member of Bathgate Golf Club where he plays off four.

Performance Editor