According to the stats, this guy is favourite to win The Masters

Jason Day The Masters

We’ve trawled back through the archives to work out precisely who the statistical favourite is to win The Masters – and the result is an interesting one.

Examining data from the last 17 editions of the Masters, dating back to Tiger Woods’ second win in 2001, we’ve used three different metrics to identify our man to watch.

1. Each player’s form heading into the Masters.
2. Their at the time of their win.
3. How many starts they had made at Augusta National prior to winning.

Let's start with the first piece of those. Fourteen of the past 17 Masters champions have won on either the PGA Tour or European Tour in the six months prior to slipping on the Green Jacket.

Here's a complete list of those who fit that bill:

Austin Cook, Branden Grace, Brice Garnett, Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith, Chris Paisley, Dustin Johnson, Dylan Frittelli, Eddie Pepperell, Gary Woodland, George Coetzee, Haotong Li, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Joost Luiten, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matt Wallace, Pat Perez, Patrick Cantlay, Patton Kizzire, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Armour, Sergio Garcia, Shubhankar Sharma, Ted Potter Jnr, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Wade Ormsby.

Of course, not all of those players are in this year's Masters field, so here's how it looks when you only include those who'll be playing:

Austin Cook, Branden Grace, Bubba Watson, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Dylan Frittelli, Gary Woodland, Haotong Li, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Pat Perez, Patrick Cantlay, Patton Kizzire, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Shubhankar Sharma, Ted Potter Jnr, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton.

According to recent trends, there's a higher chance than not that the 2018 winner is somewhere in that list of names.

To narrow it down further, we took the average age of the last 17 Masters champions - 30.9 - and the average number of starts it has taken each of the last 17 winners to win the Masters, which is 8.23

One player out of all of the names above fits that bill better than any other.

Drum-roll please...

Jason Day

Jason Day

The Aussie, who won the Farmers Insurance Open in January, is 30-years-old and will play in The Masters for the eighth time this year.

What's the former world No.1 and US PGA winner's form like around Augusta National? Pretty handy, to be honest. Aside from his withdrawal in 2012, Day has finished no worse than T28 since his debut in 2011. That first year, he was tied for second behind Charl Schwartzel. Here's his Masters record since then.

2012: W/D
2013:
3
2014: T20
2015: T28
2016: T10
2017: T22

So, if you've read this and are now considering backing the Aussie for Masters glory, he can currently be found at anywhere from 14/1 to 18/1, depending on your choice of online bookmaker.

Share this Article

share-logo
twitter-logo facebook-logo

Latest Videos See all videos right arrow

play button
EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT SCOTTY CAMERON PUTTERS (2020)
Scotty Cameron
play button
OLD DRIVER VS NEW DRIVER - TaylorMade SIM vs TaylorMade Original One
TaylorMade
play button
PUTTER BATTLE! Odyssey Stroke Lab Triple Track Ten - VS - TaylorMade Spider X
Odyssey Triple Track
play button
THE BEST LOOKING NEW CLUB I'VE SEEN IN 2020 - BUT WHAT IS IT?
Ping
See all videos right arrow

Golf News

Augusta National makes biggest real estate purchase yet
USGA issue statement on racial protests
Scots club in terrific show of appreciation for NHS
Unique Pro-Am tournament to signal golf’s UK return
European Tour pro FUMES as OWGR announces restart

Other Top Stories

Tiger Woods puts new irons in the bag
New Fife golf course gets go ahead
REVIEW - Adare Manor, Ireland's rejuvenated masterpiece
Win a spot in the ASI Scottish Open Pro-Am with Hilton
Padraig Harrington targets 2020 Ryder Cup captaincy

Quick Fault 'n' Fixes See all videos right arrow

play button
How to stop topping the ball
Watch
play button
Denis Pugh says, ‘Turn, don’t slide’
Watch
play button
The correct posture and alignment
Watch
play button
Stop de-lofting your club
Watch
See all videos right arrow