Why is Justin Thomas 50/1 to win the US Open?

For a few years now, the same names have found themselves at the top of the betting guides for major championships.

At this week’s US Open, it’s largely the same story. Scottie Scheffler leads the way at the slim price of 13/2, while the usual suspects of Rahm, Koepka, McIlroy and Cantlay follow closely behind.

Nothing unusual there.

However, after scrolling a rather long way down the list of prices on Oddschecker, you’ll come across a two-time major champion, who, on the face of it, is in the prime of his career.

At the hefty price of 50/1 is two-time US PGA champion Justin Thomas. The 30-year-old is the same odds as Rickie Fowler and Jason Day and while that pair are from no-hopers, they’re hardly of the same pedigree of someone who won a major championship last year.

• Rory McIlroy: “I feel like I’ve figured it out”

• Koepka: “They’ve never had to deal with adversity”

It’s not like his win at Southern Hills was a fluke, either. Thomas finished in the top ten at last year’s Masters and made the cut in the other two majors.

All this begs the question: why is Justin Thomas 50/1 to win the US Open?

The answer, unfortunately, lies in the form of the world No.16. Since the turn of the year, Thomas has recorded just one top-ten finish, but he’s missed two cuts.

The 15-time PGA Tour winner’s stats make for difficult reading too.

This year on tour, Thomas is ranked 141st in strokes gained: putting.

Alarmingly, he’s ranked 195th out of 198 in three putt avoidance, taking three whacks more than 4% of the time. Compare that with the leader of the stat, Maverick McNealy, who is three putting less than 1% of the time, and it’s not difficult to see where Thomas is losing shots.

It’s something he’s made a conscious effort to change. Around a month ago, he started to use AimPoint Express on the greens, saying he felt more comfortable over the ball as a result. However, the results of that haven’t quite filtered through to his game yet.

• FootJoy’s US Open shoes

• US Open: Best staff bags

From tee to green, things are better for Thomas, but even that seemed to abandon him in his last outing at the Memorial. He lost strokes on the field from tee to green at Muirfield Village, something the big hitter really isn’t accustomed to doing and it led to a missed cut.

This week, Thomas will likely be switching into some new equipment. He’s got a new grip on his putter and he’s also likely going to game a set of Titleist’s new range of irons. Something like that could be the tonic he needs to find his form of old.

Does all this really make Thomas a rank outsider for the US Open?

Only he will really know how far away his game is, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him at the right end of the leaderboard come Sunday night.

Lewis Fraser As bunkered’s Performance Editor, Lewis oversees the content that’s designed to make you a better player. From the latest gear to tuition, nutrition, strategy and more, he’s the man. A graduate of the University of Stirling, Lewis joined bunkered in 2021. Formerly a caddie at Castle Stuart Golf Links, he is a member of Bathgate Golf Club where he plays off four.

Performance Editor