Who will win the US Open? We’ve crunched the numbers to find out

There’s nothing quite like spending the week before a major championship trying to work out who will win.

A number of factors come into play. Form – both current and course – is a major one. But we can’t use the latter because, unless they played at LA Country Club in the 2017 Walker Cup or 1940 Los Angeles Open, there isn’t much to go on there. In terms of the former, you can take your pick – but can the Official World Golf Ranking play a part in your decision making? Let’s have some fun with the numbers.  

In terms of the top five, Jon Rahm is having an other-wordly season, as is Scottie Scheffler. Despite the goings-on away from the course clearly affecting his headspace, Rory McIlroy has still managed a win and a handful of top-10s, while Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland have been widely tipped to break their major duck this week – including a website not a million miles from here. 

Only five players – Woods, Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Curtis Strange and Justin Rose – have won golf’s hardest major while ranked in the top five, and the bad news for Rahm is history is against him, as just one player has won the US Open as World No 1. (It was Tiger Woods – you didn’t need me to tell you that – and he did it three times.)  

If you extend out to the top 10, we start to see a little bit clearer, and you can add Payne Stewart, Corey Pavin, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau to the mix. 

That alone suggests you shouldn’t really be looking outside the world’s 10 best players for your winner in LA come Sunday. 

But don’t rule out the outsiders. Goosen, Scott Simpson, Lee Janzen, Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell and Angel Cabrera are all players who have won the US Open while ranked outside the top 25 going into the week, while Hale Irwin, Michael Campbell, Lucas Glover and Steve Jones have all done it while ranked outside the top 50. So it can be done. 

Jones, who triumphed in 1996 from 99th in the world, is the lowest-ranked player to have ever won the USGA’s coveted gold medal. Incidentally, 2020 champion DeChambeau is currently ranked 101st. Jones was also made the biggest OWGR move when he leapt 69 places to 30th, while Campbell’s win earned him a 57-place improvement. Irwin and Glover both moved up 53 spots.  

But the moment you’ve all been waiting for. I’ve crunched the numbers and the average world ranking of the US Open winner at the start of the week is 23. 

So, without further ado, allow me to introduce your 2023 US Open champion… 

Mr Jason Day. 

World ranking of previous US Open winners 

1987: Scott Simpson – 27th to 11th (16 places)
1988: Curtis Strange – 3rd to 3rd (0 places)
1989: Curtis Strange – 4th to 4th (0 places)
1990: Hale Irwin – 89th to 36th (53 places)
1991: Payne Stewart – 8th to 5th (3 places)
1992: Tom Kite – 22nd to 10th (12 places)
1993: Lee Janzen – 36th to 20th (16 places)
1994: Ernie Els – 11th to 7th (4 places)
1995: Corey Pavin – 9th to 6th (3 places)
1996: Steve Jones – 99th to 30th (69 places)
1997: Ernie Els – 8th to 4th (4 places)
1998: Lee Janzen – 41st to 22nd (19 places)
1999: Payne Stewart – 13th to 11th (2 places)
2000: Tiger Woods – 1st to 1st (0 places)
2001: Retief Goosen – 44th to 26th (18 places)
2002: Tiger Woods – 1st to 1st (0 places)
2003: Jim Furyk – 10th to 6th (4 places)
2004: Retief Goosen – 9th to 7th (2 places)

• US Open tee times

• US Open TV schedule

2005: Michael Campbell – 80th to 23rd (57 places)
2006: Geoff Ogilvy – 17th to 8th (9 places)
2007: Angel Cabrera – 41st to 17th (24 places)
2008: Tiger Woods – 1st to 1st (0 places)
2009: Lucas Glover – 71st to 18th (53 places)
2010: Graeme McDowell – 37th to 13th (24 places)
2011: Rory McIlroy – 8th to 4th (4 places)
2012: Webb Simpson – 14th to 5th (9 places)
2013: Justin Rose – 5th to 3rd (2 places)
2014: Martin Kaymer – 28th to 11th (17 places)
2015: Jordan Spieth – 2nd to 2nd (0 places)
2016: Dustin Johnson – 6th to 3rd (3 places)
2017: Brooks Koepka – 22nd to 10th (12 places)
2018: Brooks Koepka – 9th to 4th (5 places)
2019: Gary Woodland – 25th to 12th (14 places)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau – 9th to 5th (4 places)
2021: Jon Rahm – 3rd to 1st (2 places)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick – 18th to 10th (8 places)

Alex Perry is the Associate Editor of bunkered. A journalist for more than 20 years, he has been a golf industry stalwart for the majority of his career and, in a five-year spell at ESPN, covered every sporting event you can think of. He completed his own Grand Slam at the 2023 Masters, having fallen in love with the sport at his hometown club of Okehampton and on the links of nearby Bude & North Cornwall.

Associate Editor